Forecast: $250 Million in Political for Radio in 2010

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Wells Fargo senior analyst Marci Ryvicker is forecasting that 2010 political advertising figures will reach $3.3 billion, up 11% over 2008. She says that $2.1 billion will be allocated to broadcast television (67% rise) and $250 million allocated to terrestrial radio (8% gain). Issue advertising could approach $1 billion in 2010.

Of the diversified media groups, CBS has the most consolidated revenue exposure of the groups (at 10%) likely due to its portfolio of assets. CBS generated $160 million of political revenue in 2006 and $140 million of political revenue in 2008, and Ryvicker is currently forecasting political revenue of $170 million in 2010 for CBS.

Disney has the most TV-specific and radio-specific revenue exposure to all hotly contested races, at 63% of each. However, given that these two segments comprise only 3% of DIS' consolidated revenue, political is unlikely to have a significant impact on total company results or estimates.

Both Beasley Broadcast Group and Regent Communications have the most consolidated revenue exposure to all hotly contested races, at 61%. Additionally, Emmis (55%), Entercom (53%) and Salem Radio (53%) are likely to have significant consolidated revenue exposure to the most hotly contested political races of 2010 says Ryvicker.

Ryvicker commented, "2010 political spending will most closely resemble 2006, as it was the last time a large number of governor races were held, and congressional elections faced similar conditions (i.e., declining presidential and congressional approval ratings and contentious issues)."