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Radio Forecast to Take 7.7% of 2018 Political Advertising
RADIO ONLINE | Thursday, April 26, 2018 |
Borrell has revised its Political Advertising forecast, adding $321 million to its earlier estimates of political ad spending in 2018. The firm's latest forecast predicts that $8.8 billion will be spent, up 3.8 points from its previous forecast. Borrell foresees more going to radio, newspapers and cable, and less than it originally forecast for direct mail and digital media. Radio is expected to take a 7.7% of political advertising in 2018, or $683.4 million.
The media beneficiaries in the new forecast are radio (up 21%), newspapers (12% higher than previous estimate), cable (up 11%) and out of home (up 26%). Digital loses 5.6% from what was originally forecast, mostly due to shyness about Facebook use following of the Cambridge Analytica scandal.
Borrell is forecasting that $1 of every $5 spent on political advertising this year will go to digital media. This is a staggering increase from what was spent during the last midterms in 2014, when digital media accounted for less than 1%. Borrell's current forecast reduces its initial estimate by $105 million, to $1.77 billion.
Much of the retraction is due to reports of Facebook's user-access misuse during the 2016 presidential election. Additionally, enhanced targeting and sweetheart pricing from cable providers and radio networks has proved too provocative to pass up, at least for the present. They've become stiff competitors for digital banner ads.
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