BIA Raises 2026 Ad Forecast, Radio Holds Steady

RADIO ONLINE | Thursday, April 9, 2026 | 3:00am CT

BIA Advisory Services

BIA Advisory Services has increased its 2026 U.S. local advertising forecast, projecting total spending to reach $184.5 billion, an 8.1% year-over-year gain, with radio maintaining a stable position in a rapidly evolving media mix.

The revised outlook reflects stronger-than-expected growth in digital channels such as mobile, social, streaming, and connected TV, along with a surge in political advertising. BIA now estimates $8.4 billion in local political ad spending for 2026, benefiting multiple media platforms, including radio.

For radio, the forecast points to modest but steady growth. Over-the-air (OTA) radio revenue is expected to increase 1.8% to approximately $10.08 billion in 2026, while radio digital revenue -- encompassing streaming and podcasting -- will rise 5.0% to about $2.38 billion.

Excluding political spending, however, OTA radio revenue is projected to decline slightly by 0.3%, underscoring the medium's reliance on cyclical political dollars for near-term gains. At the same time, radio digital revenue continues to grow, albeit at a slower 2.0% pace without political influence.

BIA said traditional media, including radio, continue to play a key role for advertisers seeking scale, credibility, and local connection, even as digital channels capture a growing share of budgets. The firm also highlighted opportunities for radio through digital audio extensions such as streaming and podcasts.

The updated forecast describes a "two-speed" advertising economy, with growth driven by both political spending in the near term and long-term gains from key verticals such as retail, restaurants, travel, real estate, and financial services.

Looking ahead, BIA projects total local advertising will exceed $222 billion by 2030, with success increasingly tied to media companies' ability to combine traditional reach -- where radio remains competitive -- with data-driven targeting and measurement.