Global Ad Market Growth Slows, Digital Remains Resilient

RADIO ONLINE | Monday, June 16, 2025 | 3:45pm CT

MAGNA

The global advertising industry is expected to grow by 4.9% in 2025, reaching $979 billion, according to MAGNA's Summer Update of its Global Ad Forecast. While that represents a notable deceleration from 2024's 10.3% surge, the report points to digital platforms as the main driver of stability amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Traditional media owners (radio, TV, publishing, out-of-home) will see revenues fall by 3% to $264 billion, continuing a long-term trend of erosion. In contrast, Digital Pure Players (DPPs)-which include companies such as Google, Amazon, Meta, and TikTok-are forecast to grow by 8% to $715 billion, now accounting for nearly three-quarters (73%) of global ad revenue.

"After a very robust year in 2024, MAGNA expected the global advertising market to moderate in 2025," said Vincent Letang, EVP, Global Market Research at MAGNA and author of the report. "However, given the less optimistic economic forecasts and reduced business confidence, we've adjusted our growth forecast slightly downward. Still, digital media continues to demonstrate strong resilience."

The digital ad market is being buoyed by the continued expansion of e-commerce, AI-driven ad tech, and the growing dominance of retail media networks. Retail and Search advertising, led by platforms like Amazon and Google, will grow 8% to $357 billion, while Social Media ad sales are expected to rise 11% to $242 billion. Short-form video platforms such as YouTube and Twitch will see a 7% bump to $80 billion.

As economic conditions remain uncertain, advertisers are shifting spend toward performance-driven, lower-funnel digital formats that offer measurability and scale, avoiding the sharp budget cuts seen during COVID-19.

Traditional media channels are facing challenges in the absence of major events like the Olympics or U.S. elections. Television advertising is projected to fall 5%, print by 6%, and radio by 1%. However, there are bright spots: out-of-home and cinema are expected to grow by 5%, and streaming video continues to gain traction.

MAGNA estimates that ad-supported streaming now comprises 15% of global long-form video ad revenue, totaling $23 billion. In the U.S. and U.K., that share has already reached 20-25%.

In the U.S., advertising revenues are forecast to reach a record $398 billion in 2025, up 4.6% from last year-or 6.9% growth when excluding the effects of the 2024 presidential election and Olympic Games. Digital revenues will climb 10% to $297 billion, while traditional media revenues will fall 7% to $100 billion.

• Search and Retail Media: +9.6%
• Social Media: +12%
• Short-form Digital Video: +8%
• National TV (linear + streaming): -0.8% (with linear down 5%, streaming up 12.5%)
• Out-of-Home: +2.2%
• Radio (Audio): -2%
• Publishing: -1.4%
• Local TV: -5%

Despite economic headwinds and declining consumer confidence, Q1 2025 delivered strong performance (+9.1% YoY in non-cyclical spend), signaling resilience in advertiser demand.

The automotive sector faces an uncertain outlook, with MAGNA projecting a global ad spend decline of 2% and a 3% drop in the U.S. Rising tariffs on imported vehicles and parts-especially those from Germany, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea-are increasing costs and prompting automakers to reduce marketing, particularly in traditional media.

"Automakers may pull back on marketing expenses-specifically upper-funnel formats-due to declining exports and profit margins," the report warns.

Markets heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. are expected to grow more slowly. Germany and Japan, facing new 25% tariffs on vehicle exports, are projected to see just 3% and 4% ad revenue growth respectively. Meanwhile, India (+8%) and Brazil (+12%) are expected to outperform due to stronger domestic conditions.

The top five ad markets-U.S., China, Japan, UK, and Germany-account for 73% of global spend. Advertising intensity per capita remains highest in the U.S. at $1,100, followed by the UK and Switzerland ($800), while India lags at $11.

MAGNA anticipates a re-acceleration in 2026, with global ad revenues projected to grow by 6.3% and surpass the $1 trillion mark for the first time. The U.S. market alone is expected to grow 7.8% to $429 billion, driven by the return of cyclical events including the Winter Olympics, the FIFA World Cup hosted in the U.S., and the midterm elections.