BIA Lowers 2025 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast

RADIO ONLINE | Wednesday, August 13, 2025 | 4:00am CT

BIA Advisory Services

BIA Advisory Services has revised its 2025 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast, projecting total local advertising revenue to reach $169 billion this year -- a 2.4% decline from 2024. The updated estimate is also 1.5% lower than BIA's earlier forecast of $171.4 billion.

Excluding political advertising, BIA now forecasts $168.2 billion in local ad spending for 2025, representing 3.7% growth year-over-year but down from the prior estimate of $171 billion.

The downgrade reflects mounting economic headwinds, including weaker consumer sentiment, higher tariffs, elevated interest rates, and tighter credit conditions, which are prompting advertisers to trim budgets across sectors. The forecast incorporates an anticipated minimum tariff environment of 10% and its expected impact on ad spending.

"Following a solid performance in 2024, driven by political advertising and strong spending from Legal Services, Healthcare, and Quick Service Restaurants, we are now noticing a shift in the advertising landscape for 2025," said Senan Mele, BIA's VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis. "Ad growth has slowed slightly as businesses implement more cautious spending strategies and optimize their channel allocations."

While the overall forecast fell, BIA increased its estimate for 2025 digital media spending by $855 million. Digital is now expected to account for 53.7% of total local ad revenue -- about $90.4 billion. Traditional media, by contrast, is projected to capture 46.3% of spending, or $77.8 billion, down $3.5 billion from earlier estimates.