BIA Raises 2026 Local Ad Forecast to $186.1 Billion

RADIO ONLINE | Monday, September 14, 2026 | 4:59am CT

BIA Advisory Services

BIA Advisory Services has raised its 2026 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast to $186.1 billion, an increase of $1.6 billion from its April projection of $184.5 billion, with higher political advertising and continued mobile growth driving the revision. BIA's April forecast had projected $184.5 billion in total local advertising, including approximately $8.4 billion in political spending.

The updated forecast represents approximately 9% growth from 2025. Excluding political advertising, BIA now projects $176.4 billion in local ad revenue, up $300 million from its April estimate and 3.9% over 2025.

"Political spending came in higher than we anticipated in April, with most of the incremental spending flowing into TV OTA and TV OTT," said BIA Vice President of Forecasting and Data Analysis Senan Mele.

BIA now expects local political advertising to reach $9.7 billion in 2026, up $1.3 billion from its April projection. The firm said $1.2 billion of that increase is going to over-the-air television and TV OTT. The April forecast had anticipated about $8.4 billion in political spending across broadcast television, cable, CTV/OTT, radio and direct mail.

Legal Services was another notable change, with BIA raising its forecast for the category to $9.3 billion, 4.6% above its previous projection. Mele said law firms continue to invest heavily in linear and streaming television to reach large audiences and generate leads.

Mobile remains BIA's largest local media category and is projected to reach $45.3 billion in 2026, excluding political advertising, an 8.9% year-over-year increase. BIA defines its mobile category as locally targeted advertising delivered to phones and tablets, including search, display, messaging, video and native social advertising.

Looking ahead, BIA's initial 2027 forecast calls for $186.5 billion in total local advertising, essentially unchanged from 2026. The firm expects roughly $9 billion in underlying nonpolitical growth to nearly offset an $8.6 billion drop in political spending, which is projected to decline to approximately $1.1 billion in the off-cycle year.

Among categories expected to outpace the market in 2027 are real estate, up 9.8%; leisure and recreation, up 5.9%; automotive, up 5.1%; restaurants and food, up 4.4%; and financial services, up 3.7%.

"Political spending has accelerated the market and delivered a strong two-year period for broadcast and streaming video, but the more important story is what happens beneath that surge," said BIA Managing Director Rick Ducey. "Core categories continue to expand their investments across an increasingly diverse media ecosystem."